Month By Month Winter Forecast

Snowfall OutlookFebruary 2016 Forecast

 

After the unforgiving snowfall of last winter season, it seems like the only thing on everyone’s mind is what we can expect this year. Our sources at Weatherworks, Inc. provided us with a month by month forecast of temperatures and snowfall, and we want to share this information so everyone can be prepared.

The end of October is here and don’t worry, November won’t be anything out of the ordinary. For most of New England we can expect slightly warmer temperatures and relatively average snowfall totals. Granted it is still early in the season and there’s a chance it doesn’t even snow at all, but if it does then it’s likely to be only a few inches at most. The most noticeable weather difference will be found close to the Canadian border and towards the midwest, where they expect much warmer temperatures and below average snowfall.

December is the official start of the winter season, but it may still feel like autumn even after the leaves fall and pumpkins disappear. December is predicted to be extremely mild compared to past averages. We can expect up to a 40% increase in temperature and snowfall averages. The warmer weather is caused by zonal flow from the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean which travels east to the Atlantic. This effect is similar to how a jet stream can influence weather. While the cold holding off for a while longer seems great there will still be precipitation. Warm weather prevents snow of course, but there will still be rain and possibly mixed precipitation. If temperatures end up being just right we could be in for a winter of slush.

The forecast for January seems surprisingly tame compared to last season. Above average temperatures and below average snowfall totals continue from December. This doesn’t mean it won’t snow, it just means it will be less eventful than past years. This warmth won’t hold out forever though, as month by month we see slow changes from warm with below average snowfall, transitioning towards a typical cold and snowy winter. The end of January is likely to ramp up and prepare us for February, which could be another month to remember when it comes to snow.

February is the month that exceeded our expectations last season, and it’s shaping up to do so again. Don’t be fooled by the warm weather of the early winter, because February looks to be creating a perfect storm. Colder, below average temperatures move into the northeast by this time and snowfall totals increase, significantly. Not only do cold temperatures make all that rain and slush turn to snow, but there’s also likely to be more water coming our way in general. There is projected to be an active southern jet stream, which could bring the wet southern conditions up north. One big rainstorm in Florida could mean an even bigger blizzard for the northeast. Keep in mind this is only a forecast and nothing is set in stone but February weather is shaping up to be the greatest challenge of the winter.

Sharp temperature changes in March to April look to close the winter season. Once the warm air sets in the threat of a snowstorm is no longer something to stress over. We may still see mixed conditions, but by this time any leftover snow will begin to melt. The southern Atlantic coast will likely see colder than average temperatures, but it shouldn’t be enough to see a snow storm.

Hopefully the forecast helps everyone prepare better for what’s to come. It may seem nice for December and January to stay warm and possibly blizzard free, but remember February will be quickly on its way. Overall the season looks to begin late and end quickly, but then again it’s the northeast and it’s still fresh in our minds that during the winter anything can happen.

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